Key 2010 political risks in U.S., Canada February 1, 2010
Posted by seeineye in : Politics , trackback
Below are five U.S. risks to watch in the coming year, as well as one for Canada.
2010 MID-TERM ELECTIONS
All 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives and one-third of the 100 seats in the Senate will be up for grabs in the November 2 election, and the anti-incumbent mood among U.S. voters is strong. Political analysts say Democrats could lose up to 25 of the 258 seats in the House and, more importantly, several of their votes in the Senate — which would strip them of the ability to override Republican roadblocks and could dramatically slow Obama’s legislative agenda.
What to watch:
– Conservative Democrats representing traditionally Republican districts. Some may take a stronger line on Obama spending plans in hopes of saving their seats.
– State gubernatorial races. A total of 39 governorships are up for grabs, including 20 now held by Democrats and 19 by Republicans. Early polls here could give a clue as to how voters are leaning.
– Republican horse race. Jockeying will begin in earnest for potential candidates for the 2012 presidential race, which could help speed the party’s rightward drift or move it back to the center.
BUDGET DEFICITS AND UNEMPLOYMENT
The Obama administration’s controversial effort to bail out the economy and rescue banks has sent deficit projections skyrocketing, with the White House forecasting deficits of more than $1 trillion through fiscal 2011.
Meanwhile, the U.S. unemployment rate has topped 10 percent, a sign that efforts to create jobs are not yet working and fueling fears that millions of unemployed Americans may remain that way permanently.
Republicans and fiscally conservative Democrats have blasted Obama as a spendthrift who is bankrupting the country and not tackling the problems of average Americans — attacks which could gain traction during an election year.
What to watch:
– U.S. unemployment rate. Obama has repeatedly pledged to create jobs, but unemployment remains at or near a 26-½ year peak. Obama’s fortunes are likely to ride in large part on whether he can deliver on his promise.
– Fiscal responsibility. With this the watchword for 2011, Republicans and conservative Democrats will be pushing for spending cuts that the White House may not support.
– U.S. inflation figures. Fed officials say they are still mild, meaning interest rates can stay low. But any uptick in inflation could change that equation quickly.
CLIMATE CHANGE AND HEALTHCARE
Congressional debate over U.S. healthcare reform and climate policies is likely to drag into next year — leaving Obama’s two major domestic policy initiatives up in the air after his first year in office. On healthcare, Obama’s Democrats have battled to craft a proposal that can win support from both the party’s liberals and more conservative members, a strategy that could leave none satisfied with the final result.
A similar effort to find a compromise on a climate change bill to cut greenhouse gas pollution is also bogged down, although Senate negotiators still hope to get something through early next year.
What to watch:
– Climate commitments. The Copenhagen summit may be over but there is plenty more work to do as Obama balances the drive to cut greenhouse gas emissions with need for economic recovery.
– The Environmental Protection Agency. The EPA this month assumed the right to regulate greenhouse gas emissions as a potential health hazard — providing a possible second tool to cut emissions if congressional talks fail.
AFGHANISTAN AND PAKISTAN
Obama has launched a big escalation of the war in Afghanistan, an unpopular conflict that has caused deep divisions among Democrats and put a spotlight on national security, usually a Republican strong suit.
With combat deaths rising, liberal Democrats are wary of tying U.S. fortunes to Afghanistan’s corruption-tainted president Hamid Karzai, while U.S. allies in Europe are proving wary of big new troop commitments of their own.
Obama has committed the United States to add 30,000 troops for a total of nearly 100,000 U.S. soldiers anchoring the force fighting Taliban militants. He has also said the first U.S. forces could begin to withdraw by mid-2011 — a timetable many analysts say could be difficult to keep.
Meanwhile in Pakistan, U.S.-aligned President Asif Ali Zardari is in deepening political trouble.
Things to watch:
– The London Conference. Countries will gather in London on January 28 in a meeting the U.S. expects to yield both significant new troop commitments and promises of civilian aid for the country. How much real help is forthcoming will help to determine if Obama has political cover for the war.
– Karzai has promised to take firm steps against corruption. Whether he delivers will play a big part in whether he is seen as a suitable partner, particularly as Congress debates major funding for the war.
– Political instability in Pakistan is expected to increase, which could have a direct bearing on the progress of the war.
IRAN
The international community’s standoff with Iran over its nuclear program is reaching endgame, and Obama has taken the lead in suggesting that tougher measures including sanctions are the next step. Tehran has stonewalled attempts by big powers including the United States to secure enforceable guarantees that it does not seek nuclear weapons. The coalition facing Iran includes Russia and China, but it is unclear to what degree they support sanctions.
Iran, meanwhile, continues to see protests following the disputed election six months ago that plunged it into its worst political external crisis since the 1979 Islamic revolution, adding pressure on a government already at loggerheads with the world’s big powers.
What to watch:
– Russia and China. The United States and other western countries will work hard to keep them in the coalition, but moves toward tough sanctions could fracture that unanimity.
– Israel’s response. Israel has described Iran’s nuclear program as a threat and has refused to rule out an attack if it thinks international negotiations are failing to get results.
– Iran’s internal politics. Tensions between hardliners and opposition supporters may deepen, complicating Tehran’s response to the U.S.-led pressure over its nuclear program.
CANADA
Opinion polls show the ruling Conservatives have a large lead, prompting speculation that Prime Minister Stephen Harper might try to trigger an election, especially if the main opposition Liberals continue to struggle.
Harper dismisses election talk, saying he wants to deal with the crisis. Under election law, the next vote should not be until October 2012 but Harper has already ignored the law once and could do so again.
The Conservatives hold 145 of the 308 seats in the House of Commons, which means they cannot pass major legislation without the help of an opposition party. Recent polls show the ruling party’s lead is slipping amid criticism of its policies on climate change and Afghanistan, which makes it less likely it would win a majority.
What to watch:
– Polls showing the Conservatives at 40 percent or more in public support, which would give them a good chance of winning a majority.
– Polls showing the Liberals overtaking the Conservatives, which might embolden the opposition.
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